← Dane's Games Distorted Reflections Store Championship
Fire Umbra CielTier 2
at Dane's Games Distorted Reflections Store Championship
decks
1
(12.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
3
0-3-0
overall winrate
0.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
30.7%
avg ELO -14.4 per match
expected value
40.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
41.0%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1092
· median 1092
· range 1092–1092
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1092
Q1 1170
Q3 1282
1340
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 12.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Seiryuu | 12.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.9% | -14.5 |
| Water Dawn of Ashes | 12.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 12.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Penguin Mill | 12.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 12.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 12.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.1% | -15.9 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 12.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.0% | -12.8 |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Fire Umbra Ciel decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
