Water FractalTier 1
at GA Store Champs
decks
2
(16.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
8
6-2-0
overall winrate
75.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
64.4%
avg ELO +6.9 per match
expected value
55.8%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
54.9%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1410
· median 1410
· range 1393–1427
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1093
Q1 1210
Q3 1397
1542
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 16.7% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 43.2% | -5.1 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 8.3% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 66.6% | +16.0 |
| Fire Neos Tonoris | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 8.3% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 63.7% | +13.2 |
| Water Umbra Ciel | 8.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.6% | +12.1 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
