Water Umbra CielTier 2
at GA Store Champs
decks
1
(8.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
4
2-2-0
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
47.3%
avg ELO -1.8 per match
expected value
48.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
47.6%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1219
· median 1219
· range 1219–1219
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1093
Q1 1210
Q3 1397
1542
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 16.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.4% | -12.1 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 16.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 8.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.8% | -13.2 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos Tonoris | 8.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.4% | +5.5 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 8.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.0% | +12.8 |
| Water Allies | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Umbra Ciel decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
