September Month-ender Tournament

Click an archetype for its head-to-head row vs every other deck. Mirror matches are excluded from winrates and EV. Sparse matchups are shrunk toward 50% via a Beta(2, 2) prior; draws count as 0.5. Adj WR is the same matchup record converted from per-match ELO deltas (skill-controlled). Faded winrate / EV figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — single-event numbers are noisy, so read them as rough.

#	Archetype		Tier	Decks	Share	W-L-D	Winrate	Adj WR	EV	Adj EV	Avg ELO	Skew
1		Fire Aggro	Tier 2	2	16.7%	2-6-0	25.0%	47.5%	44.8%	49.1%	1228	↓ low
2		Wind Shadowstrike	Tier 1	2	16.7%	4-3-1	56.2%	49.7%	51.2%	49.9%	1328	↑ top
3		Fire Cinderbloom Combo	Tier 1	1	8.3%	2-2-0	50.0%	50.6%	52.0%	50.6%	1193	↓ low
4		Fire Crux Mage	Tier 2	1	8.3%	2-2-0	50.0%	50.5%	48.0%	50.0%	1356	↑ top
5		Fire Exia	Tier 1	1	8.3%	3-1-0	75.0%	50.4%	54.7%	49.9%	1421	↑ top
6		Fire Oblation	Tier 1	1	8.3%	3-0-1	87.5%	52.6%	56.0%	50.9%	1400	↑ top
7		Fire Umbra Ciel	Tier 2	1	8.3%	0-4-0	0.0%	45.2%	40.0%	48.1%	1107	↓ low
8		Water Aetherwing	Tier 1	1	8.3%	3-1-0	75.0%	53.9%	53.3%	51.5%	1282	—
9		Water Genbu	Tier 1	1	8.3%	2-2-0	50.0%	51.2%	52.0%	50.9%	1241	↓ low
10		Wind Allies	Tier 1	1	8.3%	2-2-0	50.0%	49.9%	53.3%	50.4%	1324	↑ top

Every player at this event, by final placement — at events with a top cut, cut finishers are ranked by bracket result, then the rest by Swiss standing. The W-L-D record is tallied from recorded matches; byes excluded.

The event's archetypes at a glance — click a tile for its head-to-head row and decklists.

• Fire Aggro 2 decks · 16.7%
• Wind Shadowstrike 2 decks · 16.7%
• Fire Cinderbloom Combo 1 deck · 8.3%
• Fire Crux Mage 1 deck · 8.3%
• Fire Exia 1 deck · 8.3%
• Fire Oblation 1 deck · 8.3%
• Fire Umbra Ciel 1 deck · 8.3%
• Water Aetherwing 1 deck · 8.3%
• Water Genbu 1 deck · 8.3%
• Wind Allies 1 deck · 8.3%