← September Month-ender Tournament
EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at September Month-ender Tournament.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fire Oblation | 1 | 8.3% | 4 | 87.5% | 52.6% | 56.0% | 50.9% | 1400 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Fire Exia | 1 | 8.3% | 4 | 75.0% | 50.4% | 54.7% | 49.9% | 1421 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Water Aetherwing | 1 | 8.3% | 4 | 75.0% | 53.9% | 53.3% | 51.5% | 1282 | — |
| 4 | Wind Allies | 1 | 8.3% | 4 | 50.0% | 49.9% | 53.3% | 50.4% | 1324 | ↑ top |
| 5 | Fire Cinderbloom Combo | 1 | 8.3% | 4 | 50.0% | 50.6% | 52.0% | 50.6% | 1193 | ↓ low |
| 6 | Water Genbu | 1 | 8.3% | 4 | 50.0% | 51.2% | 52.0% | 50.9% | 1241 | ↓ low |
| 7 | Wind Shadowstrike | 2 | 16.7% | 8 | 56.2% | 49.7% | 51.2% | 49.9% | 1328 | ↑ top |
| 8 | Fire Crux Mage | 1 | 8.3% | 4 | 50.0% | 50.5% | 48.0% | 50.0% | 1356 | ↑ top |
| 9 | Fire Aggro | 2 | 16.7% | 8 | 25.0% | 47.5% | 44.8% | 49.1% | 1228 | ↓ low |
| 10 | Fire Umbra Ciel | 1 | 8.3% | 4 | 0.0% | 45.2% | 40.0% | 48.1% | 1107 | ↓ low |