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Fire Crux MageTier 2
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Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 14.3% | 12 | 4-7-1 | 37.5% | 40.6% | 33.8% | -6.9 |
| Fire Suzaku | 7.1% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 43.3% | -4.3 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 7.1% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 42.3% | -4.9 |
| Water Aetherwing | 4.8% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 54.4% | +2.8 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 4.8% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 54.5% | +4.3 |
| Water Fractal | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 4.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.7% | +12.3 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 4.8% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 51.0% | +0.8 |
| Wind Razorgale | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.1% | +1.0 |
| Fire Aggro | 2.4% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 44.2% | -5.6 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.4% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 38.1% | -11.4 |
| Fire Suited | 2.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 44.9% | -4.9 |
| Horse and Taxes | 2.4% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 53.6% | +2.7 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 2.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.3% | -17.1 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.7% | -8.4 |
Decklists · 9 from this event
The 9 public Fire Crux Mage decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 3 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 3 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Bandage Wound, Deflecting Edge. Losers more often ran: Evercurrent Raider, Resolute Stand, Safeguard Amulet.
Show all 30 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 24 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evercurrent Raider | -1.00 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Crux Sight | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Sudden Steel | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Cremation Ritual | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ascension | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Nimue, Cursed Touch | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Undying Dreams | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Resolute Stand | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Sword of Shadows | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Bandage Wound | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Turbo Charge | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Regal Inquisition | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Library Witch | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Incarnate Majesty | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Deflecting Edge | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Demolition | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fluffy Shopkeep | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sword of Seeking | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Immolation Trap | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flame-Rune Swordsman | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ignite the Soul | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Smoke Out | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Reduce to Ash | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Restorative Flame | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |