EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at STORE CHAMPIONSHIP.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Water Genbu | 1 | 10.0% | 4 | 100.0% | 61.9% | 60.0% | 54.7% | 1560 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Fire Crux Mage | 1 | 10.0% | 5 | 70.0% | 64.2% | 54.0% | 55.1% | 1281 | — |
| 3 | Fire Luxem Assassin | 1 | 10.0% | 4 | 62.5% | 54.5% | 52.5% | 51.8% | 1395 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Fire Aggro | 1 | 10.0% | 5 | 60.0% | 51.8% | 52.0% | 50.6% | 1189 | — |
| 5 | Fire Cats | 1 | 10.0% | 4 | 50.0% | 47.2% | 50.0% | 48.9% | 1185 | — |
| 6 | Fire Crux Lorraine | 1 | 10.0% | 4 | 50.0% | 43.2% | 50.0% | 47.3% | 1280 | — |
| 7 | Fire Seiryuu | 1 | 10.0% | 4 | 50.0% | 47.2% | 50.0% | 48.9% | 1185 | — |
| 8 | Wind Shadowstrike | 1 | 10.0% | 4 | 50.0% | 54.0% | 50.0% | 51.6% | 1226 | — |
| 9 | Fire Suzaku | 1 | 10.0% | 5 | 40.0% | 51.5% | 48.0% | 50.5% | 1043 | ↓ low |
| 10 | Fire Umbra Ciel | 1 | 10.0% | 4 | 12.5% | 32.9% | 42.5% | 43.2% | 1083 | ↓ low |
| 11 | Wind Diana | 1 | 10.0% | 5 | 10.0% | 40.6% | 42.0% | 46.6% | 1047 | ↓ low |