← Pandemonium Distorted Reflections Store Championship
Water AetherwingTier 2
at Pandemonium Distorted Reflections Store Championship
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 16.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.7% | +2.6 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 11.1% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 45.1% | -4.7 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 11.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.9% | +15.8 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 5.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.4% | -4.2 |
| Fire Suzaku | 5.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.9% | +15.9 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 5.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.7% | -6.8 |
| Water Allies | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 5.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.2% | -17.2 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 3 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 23 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 23 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prudent Nock | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Redirect Flow | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dissuading Aether | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Frozen Dismissal | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Snow Fairy | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Snow White, Weiss Queen | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ranger Strides | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Aetheric Reforging | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Orb of Glitter | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Krustallan Archer | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Drown in Aether | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Inert Sword | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Backstep | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cell Sharpshooter | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| The Looking Glass | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Mad Hatter, Morose Heritor | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tidal Lock | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |