← Pandemonium Distorted Reflections Store Championship
Water Crux MageTier 2
at Pandemonium Distorted Reflections Store Championship
decks
1
(5.6% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
5
2-3-0
overall winrate
40.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
56.5%
avg ELO +3.7 per match
expected value
49.5%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
54.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1163
· median 1163
· range 1163–1163
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1109
Q1 1177
Q3 1414
1624
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Aetherwing | 16.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.8% | +17.2 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 16.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 11.1% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 45.1% | -4.7 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 11.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 5.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.1% | +16.2 |
| Fire Exia | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 5.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.6% | -5.4 |
| Water Allies | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Crux Mage decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
