EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at MBM Store Championship .
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fire Crux Lorraine | 1 | 11.1% | 4 | 100.0% | 61.7% | 63.3% | 55.8% | 1364 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Fire Crux Mage | 1 | 11.1% | 4 | 75.0% | 60.8% | 56.0% | 54.9% | 1239 | — |
| 3 | Wind Lorraine | 1 | 11.1% | 4 | 50.0% | 52.7% | 52.0% | 52.0% | 1259 | — |
| 4 | Wind Shadowstrike | 2 | 22.2% | 7 | 42.9% | 54.6% | 48.9% | 51.9% | 1214 | ↓ low |
| 5 | Fire Aggro | 1 | 11.1% | 4 | 50.0% | 42.6% | 48.0% | 45.0% | 1477 | ↑ top |
| 6 | Fire Firebloom Burn | 1 | 11.1% | 3 | 33.3% | 45.5% | 45.0% | 46.2% | 1270 | — |
| 7 | Water Genbu | 1 | 11.1% | 3 | 16.7% | 39.0% | 43.3% | 44.9% | 1172 | ↓ low |
| 8 | Fire Suzaku | 1 | 11.1% | 3 | 16.7% | 37.9% | 42.5% | 44.0% | 1202 | ↓ low |