EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at DST Store Championship.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Water Allies | 1 | 12.5% | 4 | 100.0% | 61.9% | 61.3% | 55.6% | 1420 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Water Umbra Guardian | 1 | 12.5% | 3 | 66.7% | 53.6% | 55.0% | 53.2% | 1269 | — |
| 3 | Water Aetherwing | 1 | 12.5% | 4 | 50.0% | 55.3% | 53.3% | 54.4% | 1283 | — |
| 4 | Water Tera Mage | 1 | 12.5% | 3 | 33.3% | 46.8% | 48.0% | 49.6% | 1144 | ↓ low |
| 5 | Fire Suited | 2 | 25.0% | 6 | 33.3% | 43.9% | 46.7% | 47.9% | 1134 | ↓ low |
| 6 | Wind Shadowstrike | 2 | 25.0% | 4 | 25.0% | 40.1% | 45.0% | 46.2% | 1304 | ↑ top |