← Grand Archive Store Champions

EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Grand Archive Store Champions. EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

#Archetype Decks Share Matches Winrate Adj WR EV Adj EV Avg ELO Skew
1 Fire Neos 1 6.2% 6 100.0% 74.0% 60.8% 59.0% 1478 ↑ top
2 Fire Firebloom Burn 1 6.2% 6 66.7% 59.5% 57.0% 55.9% 1293 ↑ top
3 Water Aetherwing 1 6.2% 4 62.5% 56.0% 56.2% 55.0% 1253
4 Wind Seiryuu 1 6.2% 5 60.0% 53.5% 54.8% 53.9% 1312 ↑ top
5 Wind Shadowstrike 2 12.5% 6 50.0% 52.5% 52.2% 53.0% 1218
6 Fire Umbra Guardian 1 6.2% 4 50.0% 52.8% 52.0% 52.6% 1135 ↓ low
7 Water Astra Cleric 1 6.2% 4 25.0% 43.4% 51.4% 52.6% 1143 ↓ low
8 Fire Luxem Assassin 1 6.2% 5 60.0% 46.0% 48.9% 45.8% 1392 ↑ top
9 Wind Razorgale 1 6.2% 3 33.3% 45.5% 48.0% 49.2% 1162 ↓ low
10 Water Fractal 4 25.0% 8 31.2% 40.4% 47.7% 48.2% 1209
11 Fire Suzaku 2 12.5% 5 0.0% 25.0% 38.3% 40.0% 1180 ↓ low