← Stevenson games store championship

EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Stevenson games store championship. EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

#Archetype Decks Share Matches Winrate Adj WR EV Adj EV Avg ELO Skew
1 Water Genbu 1 5.3% 3 100.0% 68.0% 60.0% 58.1% 1298
2 Fire Firebloom Burn 1 5.3% 6 75.0% 76.6% 58.8% 63.6% 1245
3 Wind Wakeup Combo 1 5.3% 6 83.3% 69.4% 58.6% 57.2% 1343
4 Wind Seiryuu 1 5.3% 5 70.0% 49.9% 56.7% 51.3% 1418 ↑ top
5 Water Tera Mage 1 5.3% 5 60.0% 47.2% 52.0% 49.0% 1349 ↑ top
6 Water Umbra Guardian 1 5.3% 5 70.0% 61.5% 51.1% 53.0% 1311
7 Fire Crux Mage 1 5.3% 5 60.0% 45.2% 51.1% 46.8% 1378 ↑ top
8 Fire Crux Lorraine 1 5.3% 4 37.5% 46.3% 50.0% 50.0% 1065 ↓ low
9 Wind Astra Cleric 3 15.8% 14 46.4% 44.1% 50.0% 49.4% 1314
10 Fire Suited 2 10.5% 8 50.0% 49.3% 48.0% 48.4% 1406 ↑ top
11 Wind Crux Lorraine 1 5.3% 4 37.5% 48.2% 47.1% 50.1% 1242
12 Wind Shadowstrike 2 10.5% 8 31.2% 34.5% 47.0% 45.1% 1263
13 Water Exia 1 5.3% 4 12.5% 40.4% 45.0% 47.5% 1118 ↓ low
14 Water Fractal 1 5.3% 4 12.5% 40.4% 45.0% 47.5% 1118 ↓ low
15 Water Aetherwing 1 5.3% 4 12.5% 42.1% 42.5% 47.5% 1069 ↓ low
16 Wind Allies 1 5.3% 1 0.0% 38.5% 40.0% 38.5% 1293