← Stevenson games store championship
EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Stevenson games store championship.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Water Genbu | 1 | 5.3% | 3 | 100.0% | 68.0% | 60.0% | 58.1% | 1298 | — |
| 2 | Fire Firebloom Burn | 1 | 5.3% | 6 | 75.0% | 76.6% | 58.8% | 63.6% | 1245 | — |
| 3 | Wind Wakeup Combo | 1 | 5.3% | 6 | 83.3% | 69.4% | 58.6% | 57.2% | 1343 | — |
| 4 | Wind Seiryuu | 1 | 5.3% | 5 | 70.0% | 49.9% | 56.7% | 51.3% | 1418 | ↑ top |
| 5 | Water Tera Mage | 1 | 5.3% | 5 | 60.0% | 47.2% | 52.0% | 49.0% | 1349 | ↑ top |
| 6 | Water Umbra Guardian | 1 | 5.3% | 5 | 70.0% | 61.5% | 51.1% | 53.0% | 1311 | — |
| 7 | Fire Crux Mage | 1 | 5.3% | 5 | 60.0% | 45.2% | 51.1% | 46.8% | 1378 | ↑ top |
| 8 | Fire Crux Lorraine | 1 | 5.3% | 4 | 37.5% | 46.3% | 50.0% | 50.0% | 1065 | ↓ low |
| 9 | Wind Astra Cleric | 3 | 15.8% | 14 | 46.4% | 44.1% | 50.0% | 49.4% | 1314 | — |
| 10 | Fire Suited | 2 | 10.5% | 8 | 50.0% | 49.3% | 48.0% | 48.4% | 1406 | ↑ top |
| 11 | Wind Crux Lorraine | 1 | 5.3% | 4 | 37.5% | 48.2% | 47.1% | 50.1% | 1242 | — |
| 12 | Wind Shadowstrike | 2 | 10.5% | 8 | 31.2% | 34.5% | 47.0% | 45.1% | 1263 | — |
| 13 | Water Exia | 1 | 5.3% | 4 | 12.5% | 40.4% | 45.0% | 47.5% | 1118 | ↓ low |
| 14 | Water Fractal | 1 | 5.3% | 4 | 12.5% | 40.4% | 45.0% | 47.5% | 1118 | ↓ low |
| 15 | Water Aetherwing | 1 | 5.3% | 4 | 12.5% | 42.1% | 42.5% | 47.5% | 1069 | ↓ low |
| 16 | Wind Allies | 1 | 5.3% | 1 | 0.0% | 38.5% | 40.0% | 38.5% | 1293 | — |