← Yeti Webcam Weekly 10/23/2025
Fire Crux MageTier 2
at Yeti Webcam Weekly 10/23/2025
decks
5
(15.6% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
15
5-7-3
overall winrate
43.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
50.7%
avg ELO +0.3 per match
expected value
47.5%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.3%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1346
· median 1317
· range 1234–1563
(5 pilots with an ELO rating)
1083
Q1 1208
Q3 1420
1563
20% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Seiryuu | 12.5% | 4 | 1-1-2 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.2% | +0.2 |
| Water Aetherwing | 9.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.9% | +0.9 |
| Fire Aggro | 6.2% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 6.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 49.1% | -1.4 |
| Fire Slimes | 6.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.1% | +1.1 |
| Water Tera Mage | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 3.1% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.8% | -0.4 |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.9% | -1.8 |
| Fire Tera Cleric | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Tamer | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Beast | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.8% | +1.3 |
| Wind Byakko | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Guardian | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.2% | +1.9 |
Decklists · 5 from this event
The 5 public Fire Crux Mage decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
