← Yeti Webcam Weekly 10/23/2025
Water Tera MageTier 2
at Yeti Webcam Weekly 10/23/2025
decks
2
(6.2% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
5
1-2-2
overall winrate
40.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
50.5%
avg ELO +0.3 per match
expected value
48.2%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.1%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1246
· median 1246
· range 1144–1349
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1083
Q1 1208
Q3 1420
1563
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 15.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 12.5% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.2% | +0.3 |
| Water Aetherwing | 9.4% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.0% | -0.1 |
| Fire Aggro | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 6.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Cleric | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.3% | +2.1 |
| Water Tera Tamer | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 3.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 49.4% | -1.0 |
| Wind Beast | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Guardian | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Water Tera Mage decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
