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Horse and TaxesTier 1
at Zulu's (Lynnwood) Board Game Cafe DTR Store Championship
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 9.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.6% | -15.1 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 9.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.2% | +19.5 |
| Water Tera Mage | 9.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.2% | +6.7 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 9.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 4.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.8% | +10.8 |
| Fire Arcane | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Cleric | 4.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.5% | +12.1 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Zander | 4.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.9% | +11.0 |
| Water Aetherwing | 4.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.4% | -18.6 |
| Water Allies | 4.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.7% | -13.4 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 2 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 16 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 16 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resolute Stand | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Diablerie | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Volda, Smolder's Spite | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Undying Dreams | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Serum of Wisdom | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cinder Geyser | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Sparks | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Varuckan Acolyte | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Arrow Trap | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fiery Interference | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Scatter Essence | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |