← Zulu's (Lynnwood) Board Game Cafe DTR Store Championship
Water AlliesTier 1
at Zulu's (Lynnwood) Board Game Cafe DTR Store Championship
decks
1
(4.8% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
5
2-2-1
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
50.5%
avg ELO +0.3 per match
expected value
50.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1357
· median 1357
· range 1357–1357
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1087
Q1 1272
Q3 1352
1471
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 9.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 9.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 9.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.3% | +13.4 |
| Water Tera Mage | 9.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 9.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.5% | -12.0 |
| Fire Aggro | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Cleric | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 4.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.9% | -13.0 |
| Fire Zander | 4.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.2% | +9.9 |
| Water Aetherwing | 4.8% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.0% | +3.1 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Allies decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
