Fire Crux MageTier 1
at DTR Massachusetts Regionals
decks
4
(8.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
23
12-8-3
overall winrate
58.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
49.4%
avg ELO -0.2 per match
expected value
51.8%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.9%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1351
· median 1392
· range 1200–1422
(4 pilots with an ELO rating)
1011
Q1 1168
Q3 1324
1624
75% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 10.0% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 32.6% | -11.2 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 8.0% | 4 | 1-2-1 | 37.5% | 43.8% | 41.1% | -5.7 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 8.0% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 62.2% | +11.7 |
| Water Aetherwing | 6.0% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 53.5% | +3.3 |
| Water Genbu | 6.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 6.0% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 56.9% | +6.6 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 4.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.2% | +13.1 |
| Fire Polkhawk | 2.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.6% | -10.3 |
| Fire Slimes | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 2.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.1% | +16.1 |
| Fire Suzaku | 2.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.1% | +13.0 |
| Fire Tera Diao Chan | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Kongming | 2.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.8% | +4.5 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 2.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.6% | +7.4 |
| Water Crux Mage | 2.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.7% | -18.1 |
| Water Dawn of Ashes | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Cleric | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Triskit | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.2% | -17.3 |
| Wind Beast | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 2.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.3% | +10.0 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 4 from this event
The 4 public Fire Crux Mage decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
