EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Store Championship.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fire Crux Mage | 2 | 18.2% | 7 | 71.4% | 53.1% | 55.3% | 50.9% | 1441 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Fire Neos | 1 | 9.1% | 5 | 70.0% | 47.6% | 54.0% | 48.4% | 1608 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Water Genbu | 1 | 9.1% | 3 | 66.7% | 47.6% | 53.3% | 48.9% | 1435 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Fire Suzaku | 1 | 9.1% | 3 | 50.0% | 52.1% | 50.0% | 51.0% | 1328 | — |
| 5 | Fire Luxem Assassin | 1 | 9.1% | 3 | 33.3% | 55.0% | 50.0% | 55.2% | 1220 | ↓ low |
| 6 | Water Fractal | 1 | 9.1% | 4 | 50.0% | 55.9% | 48.0% | 51.1% | 1296 | — |
| 7 | Slimes | 1 | 9.1% | 3 | 33.3% | 47.4% | 46.7% | 48.8% | 1189 | ↓ low |
| 8 | Wind Shadowstrike | 1 | 9.1% | 4 | 50.0% | 50.6% | 46.7% | 49.0% | 1315 | — |
| 9 | Wind Allies | 1 | 9.1% | 2 | 0.0% | 44.9% | 40.0% | 47.0% | 1281 | — |
| 10 | Water Tera Kongming | 1 | 9.1% | 2 | 0.0% | 41.8% | 40.0% | 45.1% | 1053 | ↓ low |