Water Astra RangerTier 2
at Loot Box Store Championship
decks
2
(20.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
4
0-4-0
overall winrate
0.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
33.2%
avg ELO -10.7 per match
expected value
40.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
43.3%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1132
· median 1132
· range 1101–1163
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1010
Q1 1122
Q3 1234
1569
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Cinderbloom Combo | 10.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.7% | -11.7 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 10.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.4% | -8.9 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Shadowstrike | 10.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.0% | -6.3 |
| Water Crux Mage | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 10.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.0% | -16.0 |
