Water AetherwingTier 1
at CardArt DTR Store Champs
decks
2
(6.2% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
10
5-3-2
overall winrate
60.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
48.6%
avg ELO -0.6 per match
expected value
52.9%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1521
· median 1521
· range 1364–1678
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1042
Q1 1195
Q3 1452
1678
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 9.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 9.4% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 55.7% | +5.5 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 6.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.4% | -21.7 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 6.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.8% | +14.1 |
| Water Fractal | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 6.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.6% | -2.3 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.0% | -6.4 |
| Fire Exia | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.1% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.0% | -3.2 |
| Fire Slimes | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 3.1% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.7% | -3.6 |
| Water Allies | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Cleric | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 3.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.1% | +8.2 |
| Wind Exia Jin | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Water Aetherwing decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
