EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Mox DTR Store Championship.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fire Suited | 2 | 16.7% | 6 | 100.0% | 79.4% | 62.2% | 62.2% | 1329 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Fire Suzaku | 1 | 8.3% | 4 | 75.0% | 52.7% | 54.3% | 50.4% | 1436 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Water Genbu | 2 | 16.7% | 7 | 42.9% | 45.5% | 50.0% | 50.2% | 1201 | — |
| 4 | Wind Seiryuu | 1 | 8.3% | 2 | 50.0% | 58.7% | 50.0% | 55.2% | 1051 | ↓ low |
| 5 | Fire Umbra Guardian | 1 | 8.3% | 4 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.0% | 48.8% | 1309 | ↑ top |
| 6 | Fire Crux Mage | 2 | 16.7% | 7 | 42.9% | 39.2% | 45.8% | 43.8% | 1281 | — |
| 7 | Fire Exia | 1 | 8.3% | 4 | 25.0% | 43.2% | 45.7% | 48.1% | 1094 | ↓ low |
| 8 | Water Crux Mage | 1 | 8.3% | 4 | 25.0% | 38.6% | 44.0% | 44.0% | 1212 | — |
| 9 | Water Astra Diana | 1 | 8.3% | 4 | 25.0% | 43.1% | 43.3% | 45.8% | 1143 | ↓ low |