← Outpost Ghent | Store Championship
Fire AggroTier 2
at Outpost Ghent | Store Championship
decks
2
(20.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
6
2-4-0
overall winrate
33.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
52.5%
avg ELO +1.3 per match
expected value
43.8%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.4%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1144
· median 1144
· range 1086–1202
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1086
Q1 1163
Q3 1370
1520
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 30.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.6% | -3.8 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 10.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.9% | -11.3 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 10.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.4% | -5.8 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 10.0% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 70.7% | +19.8 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 10.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.2% | -10.8 |
