EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at DTR Store Champs.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fire Umbra Guardian | 1 | 9.1% | 4 | 62.5% | 50.7% | 55.6% | 55.0% | 1423 | — |
| 2 | Fire Crux Lorraine | 4 | 36.4% | 8 | 68.8% | 48.2% | 55.3% | 49.7% | 1573 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Water Crux Mage | 1 | 9.1% | 4 | 50.0% | 44.9% | 50.0% | 49.9% | 1561 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Fire Crux Mage | 1 | 9.1% | 4 | 62.5% | 58.8% | 47.1% | 50.6% | 1354 | — |
| 5 | Wind Wakeup Combo | 1 | 9.1% | 4 | 62.5% | 64.6% | 47.1% | 52.2% | 1304 | ↓ low |
| 6 | Fire Cinderbloom Combo | 1 | 9.1% | 3 | 33.3% | 48.8% | 46.7% | 49.4% | 1184 | ↓ low |
| 7 | Fire Firebloom Burn | 1 | 9.1% | 4 | 25.0% | 44.8% | 42.9% | 48.0% | 1211 | ↓ low |
| 8 | Slimes | 1 | 9.1% | 3 | 0.0% | 38.4% | 40.0% | 45.8% | 1241 | ↓ low |