Water AetherwingTier 1
at Wolf Ascent Ticket Pods
decks
2
(12.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
8
5-3-0
overall winrate
62.5%
ELO-adjusted winrate
51.8%
avg ELO +0.9 per match
expected value
51.4%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.3%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1241
· median 1241
· range 1211–1270
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1081
Q1 1186
Q3 1246
1325
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 12.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 12.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.1% | -3.0 |
| Wind Allies | 12.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 6.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.9% | +3.0 |
| Fire Suited | 6.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.6% | +0.6 |
| Water Overlord | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 6.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.5% | +2.4 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.3% | +0.3 |
| Wind Umbra Guardian | 6.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.8% | +2.8 |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Water Aetherwing decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
