Water OverlordTier 2
at Wolf Ascent Ticket Pods
decks
1
(6.2% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
4
1-3-0
overall winrate
25.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
50.1%
avg ELO +0.1 per match
expected value
44.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1081
· median 1081
· range 1081–1081
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1081
Q1 1186
Q3 1246
1325
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 12.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 12.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.9% | -1.7 |
| Water Aetherwing | 12.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 12.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.1% | +2.0 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 6.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.7% | -2.1 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Guardian | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Overlord decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
