← Store championship gameforce 22-11
Fire ExiaTier 2
at Store championship gameforce 22-11
decks
1
(4.2% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
6
2-1-3
overall winrate
58.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
47.4%
avg ELO -1.4 per match
expected value
48.8%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
45.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1432
· median 1432
· range 1432–1432
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1107
Q1 1186
Q3 1419
1520
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 16.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 12.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.4% | -21.8 |
| Water Aetherwing | 8.3% | 2 | 0-0-2 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.4% | -2.5 |
| Wind Razorgale | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 4.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.2% | +14.7 |
| Fire Oblation | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 4.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.4% | +7.0 |
| Water Fractal | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 4.2% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.1% | -3.1 |
| Water Tera Mage | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Fire Exia decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
