← Store championship gameforce 22-11
Water FractalTier 2
at Store championship gameforce 22-11
decks
1
(4.2% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
5
1-4-0
overall winrate
20.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
44.0%
avg ELO -3.4 per match
expected value
42.2%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
46.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1132
· median 1132
· range 1132–1132
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1107
Q1 1186
Q3 1419
1520
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 16.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 12.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.0% | -11.2 |
| Water Aetherwing | 8.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.6% | -7.0 |
| Wind Razorgale | 8.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.6% | -8.7 |
| Fire Exia | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 4.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.6% | +17.0 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 4.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.5% | -7.3 |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Fractal decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
