← DTR Season Revelfest Tourney #1
EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at DTR Season Revelfest Tourney #1.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Water Fractal | 1 | 9.1% | 3 | 100.0% | 52.0% | 60.0% | 50.9% | 1323 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Wind Umbra Ranger | 1 | 9.1% | 1 | 100.0% | 51.1% | 60.0% | 51.1% | 1425 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Wind Razorgale | 1 | 9.1% | 3 | 66.7% | 50.2% | 53.3% | 50.1% | 1313 | — |
| 4 | Wind Seiryuu | 1 | 9.1% | 3 | 66.7% | 50.2% | 53.3% | 50.1% | 1346 | ↑ top |
| 5 | Fire Firebloom Burn | 2 | 18.2% | 4 | 50.0% | 50.2% | 50.0% | 50.1% | 1243 | ↓ low |
| 6 | Wind Wakeup Combo | 1 | 9.1% | 3 | 33.3% | 49.4% | 50.0% | 50.0% | 1222 | ↓ low |
| 7 | Wind Arcane | 1 | 9.1% | 3 | 33.3% | 49.5% | 45.0% | 49.6% | 1302 | — |
| 8 | Water Neos | 1 | 9.1% | 1 | 0.0% | 49.0% | 40.0% | 49.0% | 1207 | ↓ low |
| 9 | Water Tera Mage | 1 | 9.1% | 1 | 0.0% | 48.9% | 40.0% | 48.9% | 1367 | ↑ top |
| 10 | Water Umbra Guardian | 1 | 9.1% | 2 | 0.0% | 48.9% | 40.0% | 49.4% | 1134 | ↓ low |