← DTR Season Revelfest Tourney #3
EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at DTR Season Revelfest Tourney #3.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wind Seiryuu | 1 | 12.5% | 3 | 83.3% | 50.0% | 56.7% | 50.0% | 1617 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Water Aetherwing | 1 | 12.5% | 3 | 83.3% | 51.5% | 56.7% | 50.7% | 1317 | — |
| 3 | Fire Oblation | 1 | 12.5% | 3 | 66.7% | 51.3% | 53.3% | 50.6% | 1224 | ↓ low |
| 4 | Water Fractal | 1 | 12.5% | 3 | 66.7% | 51.3% | 53.3% | 50.6% | 1309 | — |
| 5 | Water Genbu | 1 | 12.5% | 3 | 33.3% | 49.5% | 46.7% | 49.8% | 1293 | ↓ low |
| 6 | Wind Razorgale | 1 | 12.5% | 3 | 33.3% | 49.0% | 46.7% | 49.5% | 1353 | — |
| 7 | Fire Firebloom Burn | 1 | 12.5% | 2 | 0.0% | 48.8% | 40.0% | 49.3% | 1256 | ↓ low |
| 8 | Wind Astra Cleric | 1 | 12.5% | 2 | 0.0% | 48.3% | 40.0% | 49.0% | 1346 | — |