DTR Season Revelfest Tourney #4

Click an archetype for its head-to-head row vs every other deck. Mirror matches are excluded from winrates and EV. Sparse matchups are shrunk toward 50% via a Beta(2, 2) prior; draws count as 0.5. Adj WR is the same matchup record converted from per-match ELO deltas (skill-controlled). Faded winrate / EV figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — single-event numbers are noisy, so read them as rough.

#	Archetype		Tier	Decks	Share	W-L-D	Winrate	Adj WR	EV	Adj EV	Avg ELO	Skew
1		Water Allies	Tier 1	2	25.0%	2-2-1	50.0%	50.3%	50.0%	50.1%	1278	—
2		Fire Crux Mage	Tier 1	1	12.5%	2-1-0	66.7%	51.1%	50.0%	50.2%	1239	—
3		Fire Umbra Guardian	Tier 2	1	12.5%	0-1-0	0.0%	48.9%	40.0%	48.9%	1200	↓ low
4		Water Aetherwing	Tier 1	1	12.5%	2-1-0	66.7%	50.1%	55.0%	50.2%	1372	↑ top
5		Water Astra Ranger	Tier 2	1	12.5%	0-2-0	0.0%	48.3%	40.0%	49.0%	1180	↓ low
6		Water Umbra Guardian	Tier 1	1	12.5%	1-1-1	50.0%	50.6%	50.0%	50.3%	1134	↓ low
7		Wind Shadowstrike	Tier 1	1	12.5%	1-0-0	100.0%	50.0%	60.0%	50.0%	1493	↑ top

Every player at this event, by final placement — at events with a top cut, cut finishers are ranked by bracket result, then the rest by Swiss standing. The W-L-D record is tallied from recorded matches; byes excluded.

The event's archetypes at a glance — click a tile for its head-to-head row and decklists.

• Water Allies 2 decks · 25.0%
• Fire Crux Mage 1 deck · 12.5%
• Fire Umbra Guardian 1 deck · 12.5%
• Water Aetherwing 1 deck · 12.5%
• Water Astra Ranger 1 deck · 12.5%
• Water Umbra Guardian 1 deck · 12.5%
• Wind Shadowstrike 1 deck · 12.5%