← DTR Season Revelfest Tourney #4
Water Umbra GuardianTier 1
at DTR Season Revelfest Tourney #4
decks
1
(12.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
3
1-1-1
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
50.6%
avg ELO +0.4 per match
expected value
50.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.3%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1134
· median 1134
· range 1134–1134
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1134
Q1 1195
Q3 1358
1493
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Allies | 25.0% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.4% | +0.6 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 12.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 12.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.1% | +1.7 |
| Water Aetherwing | 12.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 49.3% | -1.1 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 12.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 12.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Umbra Guardian decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
