← DTR Season Revelfest Tourney #7
Water AlliesTier 1
at DTR Season Revelfest Tourney #7
decks
2
(22.2% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
5
3-2-0
overall winrate
60.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
50.6%
avg ELO +0.4 per match
expected value
52.5%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1278
· median 1278
· range 1203–1353
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1134
Q1 1206
Q3 1353
1417
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 22.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.6% | -0.4 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 11.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 11.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.5% | +0.9 |
| Wind Razorgale | 11.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 11.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 11.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.0% | +0.9 |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Water Allies decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
