← Grand Archive TCG - Standard @ Evergreen Games Shoppe
Water FractalTier 1
at Grand Archive TCG - Standard @ Evergreen Games Shoppe
Pilot Skill ↓ low
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Exia | 16.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 16.7% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.3% | +0.2 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 8.3% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.2% | +0.4 |
| Fire Zander | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 8.3% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.9% | -0.2 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 8.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.0% | +3.2 |
| Water Crux Assassin | 8.3% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.2% | +0.3 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Water Fractal decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 35 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 35 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Song of Frost | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Polar Depths | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Torpid Fractal | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Zhang Jiao, Way of Peace | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Throne-Keeper Bullfrog | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fracturize | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cerulean Decree | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Awakened Deacon | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Frostsworn Paladin | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Water | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Snow | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Water Barrier | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Deep Sea Fractal | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spellward Scepter | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Portentous Tanggu | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Poisonous Apple | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sweet Ambrosia | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fragmented Spirit of Water | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Freezing Steel | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Snow White, Weiss Queen | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Channeling Stone | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Unstable Fractal | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Polishing Flourish | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Necklace of Foresight | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Refreshment | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Intrusion | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Diao Chan, Dreaming Wish | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Drowned Exorcist | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Art of War | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |