Fire Umbra CielTier 2
at Nowy Sezon
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Arcane | 10.0% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 46.1% | -3.7 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 10.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 49.1% | -1.5 |
| Fire Slimes | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 10.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.2% | -2.9 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 10.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.9% | +3.0 |
| Wind Razorgale | 10.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.8% | +2.9 |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 10.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.8% | +2.9 |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Fire Umbra Ciel decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 27 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 27 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Torch Marshal | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Heavy Swing | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Whimsy's Warden | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sablier Guard | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Devotion's Price | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Devious Welcome | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Idle Thoughts | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Umbra Sight | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Honorable Vanguard | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Exsanguinating Wallop | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Life Essence Amulet | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ombreux Chevalier | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sinistre Stab | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Creative Shock | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Demon's Aim | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Coy Bouclier | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Savage Smash | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Chalice of Blood | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Bauble of Abundance | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Vigil Rempart | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Overpowering Defense | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Library Witch | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Conflagrant Sentinel | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |