Fire RaiTier 1
at PTM | Road to Ascent Manila
decks
1
(4.8% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
6
5-1-0
overall winrate
83.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
53.2%
avg ELO +1.7 per match
expected value
56.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
51.1%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1352
· median 1352
· range 1352–1352
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1114
Q1 1220
Q3 1392
1550
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Oblation | 14.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 4.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.0% | +1.6 |
| Fire Exia | 4.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.7% | -2.1 |
| Fire Umbra Diana | 4.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.1% | +1.8 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Assassin | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 4.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.1% | +1.8 |
| Water Overlord | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Zander | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 4.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.2% | +3.5 |
| Wind Crux Merlin | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 4.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.2% | +3.5 |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Fire Rai decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
