Water Crux AssassinTier 2
at PTM | Road to Ascent Manila
decks
1
(4.8% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
6
1-4-1
overall winrate
25.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
47.1%
avg ELO -1.6 per match
expected value
43.6%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.9%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1287
· median 1287
· range 1287–1287
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1114
Q1 1220
Q3 1392
1550
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Oblation | 14.3% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 49.2% | -0.8 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 4.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.2% | -4.4 |
| Fire Exia | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Rai | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Diana | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Overlord | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Zander | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 4.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.5% | -2.4 |
| Wind Crux Merlin | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 4.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.0% | +1.6 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 4.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.5% | -2.4 |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Crux Assassin decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
