← Mad Alpaca Games Davis PTM Store Championship
Water GenbuTier 1
at Mad Alpaca Games Davis PTM Store Championship
decks
2
(14.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
9
7-2-0
overall winrate
77.8%
ELO-adjusted winrate
49.6%
avg ELO -0.2 per match
expected value
56.4%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.3%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1483
· median 1483
· range 1416–1550
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1049
Q1 1188
Q3 1430
1550
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 21.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.5% | +8.8 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 14.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 41.2% | -8.4 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 7.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.5% | +4.0 |
| Fire Suited | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 7.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.1% | -17.4 |
| Water Tera Mage | 7.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.3% | +8.4 |
| Wind Allies | 7.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.6% | +4.2 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 7.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.9% | +3.0 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 7.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.6% | +4.2 |
