Water FractalTier 1
at 紙牌屋店冠賽
decks
2
(16.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
11
5-4-2
overall winrate
54.5%
ELO-adjusted winrate
52.9%
avg ELO +1.3 per match
expected value
50.6%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1281
· median 1281
· range 1151–1410
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1126
Q1 1211
Q3 1409
1535
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Seiryuu | 16.7% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 47.0% | -2.2 |
| Fire Aggro | 8.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.1% | +11.3 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 8.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 8.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.8% | +18.8 |
| Fire Suzaku | 8.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.9% | -17.7 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 8.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.1% | +8.2 |
| Water Aetherwing | 8.3% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.1% | +0.1 |
| Water Genbu | 8.3% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.7% | +4.4 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 8.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.7% | -2.2 |
