Water AetherwingTier 1
at DeckaDice QLD PTM Regionals
decks
2
(11.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
12
6-4-2
overall winrate
58.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
49.7%
avg ELO -0.1 per match
expected value
52.5%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.1%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1276
· median 1276
· range 1099–1453
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1002
Q1 1129
Q3 1343
1502
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Seiryuu | 11.1% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 54.8% | +3.1 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 5.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.6% | +4.1 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.6% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.8% | -3.6 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 5.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.3% | +11.7 |
| Fire Suzaku | 5.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.0% | -11.2 |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 5.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.8% | -5.1 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 5.6% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.1% | -1.4 |
| Wind Byakko | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Silvie | 5.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.3% | -15.5 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 5.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.6% | +7.3 |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Water Aetherwing decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
