EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at PTM Store Championship.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
2nd
Fire Aetherwing
55.6%
↑ top
1st
Fire Luxem Assassin
63.3%
↑ top
3rd
Wind Shadowstrike
52.2%
↑ top
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fire Luxem Assassin | 1 | 5.6% | 7 | 100.0% | 62.0% | 63.3% | 55.1% | 1532 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Fire Aetherwing | 1 | 5.6% | 7 | 71.4% | 61.5% | 55.6% | 54.9% | 1342 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Wind Shadowstrike | 2 | 11.1% | 9 | 55.6% | 43.6% | 52.2% | 48.7% | 1390 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Fire Umbra Alice | 1 | 5.6% | 6 | 58.3% | 57.9% | 52.2% | 52.5% | 1239 | — |
| 5 | Wind Astra Cleric | 2 | 11.1% | 10 | 50.0% | 51.6% | 51.1% | 51.4% | 1383 | ↑ top |
| 6 | Wind Umbra Ranger | 1 | 5.6% | 5 | 40.0% | 46.1% | 50.0% | 50.9% | 1334 | ↑ top |
| 7 | Water Crux Assassin | 1 | 5.6% | 5 | 40.0% | 48.6% | 50.0% | 51.9% | 1216 | ↓ low |
| 8 | Fire Suited | 1 | 5.6% | 5 | 60.0% | 56.4% | 50.0% | 50.6% | 1311 | — |
| 9 | Fire Crux Lorraine | 2 | 11.1% | 11 | 50.0% | 52.0% | 48.2% | 49.3% | 1231 | ↓ low |
| 10 | Fire Crux Mage | 1 | 5.6% | 5 | 50.0% | 50.9% | 47.2% | 48.3% | 1222 | ↓ low |
| 11 | Wind Seiryuu | 1 | 5.6% | 3 | 33.3% | 46.5% | 45.0% | 47.1% | 1169 | ↓ low |
| 12 | Fire Aggro | 1 | 5.6% | 4 | 25.0% | 43.1% | 44.0% | 46.7% | 1128 | ↓ low |
| 13 | Fire Slimes | 1 | 5.6% | 3 | 16.7% | 42.7% | 43.3% | 46.6% | 1100 | ↓ low |
| 14 | Water Umbra Alice | 1 | 5.6% | 3 | 0.0% | 33.7% | 40.0% | 42.4% | 1243 | — |
| 15 | Fire Exia | 1 | 5.6% | 3 | 0.0% | 38.6% | 40.0% | 44.1% | 1191 | ↓ low |