← Game Kastle Santa Clara Store Championship
Fire OblationTier 1
at Game Kastle Santa Clara Store Championship
decks
2
(9.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
10
7-3-0
overall winrate
70.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
58.1%
avg ELO +3.6 per match
expected value
53.6%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
51.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1484
· median 1484
· range 1417–1550
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1192
Q1 1320
Q3 1494
1678
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 9.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.2% | -17.3 |
| Water Aetherwing | 9.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.2% | +9.9 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 9.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.5% | -15.2 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 9.1% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 66.1% | +15.5 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 4.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.8% | +10.9 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.9% | +9.4 |
| Fire Exia | 4.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.6% | +4.1 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Assassin | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 4.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.9% | +1.8 |
| Water Tera Mage | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Fire Oblation decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
