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Wind SeiryuuTier 1

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decks
3 (15.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
12 7-3-2
overall winrate
66.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
54.9% avg ELO +2.1 per match
expected value
55.0% share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
53.0% share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1564 · median 1569 · range 1528–1593 (3 pilots with an ELO rating)
1110 Q1 1305 Q3 1473 1593
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile, 0% in the bottom. This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

Opponent Their share Matches W-L-D Raw WR Shrunk WR Adj WR ELO Δ/match
Water Ravishing Mill 15.0% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 59.2% +14.8
Fire Crux Mage 10.0% 2 1-1-0 50.0% 50.0% 50.1% +0.1
Fire Umbra Guardian 10.0% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 57.6% +12.1
Fire Aetherwing 5.0% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 51.7% +2.7
Fire Firebloom Burn 5.0% 0
Fire Slimes 5.0% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 51.5% +2.5
Fire Suzaku 5.0% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 34.6% -24.6
Water Aetherwing 5.0% 0
Water Genbu 5.0% 1 0-0-1 50.0% 50.0% 52.6% +4.1
Wind Allies 5.0% 0
Wind Astra Cleric 5.0% 2 1-1-0 50.0% 50.0% 50.5% +0.5
Wind Crux Lorraine 5.0% 1 0-0-1 50.0% 50.0% 45.8% -6.8
Wind Shadowstrike 5.0% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 62.0% +19.2
Decklists · 3 from this event

The 3 public Wind Seiryuu decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.

Mirror Analysis

In 1 mirror match (1 draw excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.

No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.

Show all 13 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 13 held back from the grid above)
Card Edge In winner In loser Same Direction
Veiling Breeze -1.00 0 1 0
Ensnaring Fumes +1.00 1 0 0
Lost Providence +1.00 1 0 0
Unmake Duality -1.00 0 1 0
Turbo Charge +1.00 1 0 0
The Looking Glass -1.00 0 1 0
Spellward Scepter -1.00 0 1 0
Scatter Essence +1.00 1 0 0
Annul Spell +1.00 1 0 0
Beseeched Fatestone +1.00 1 0 0
Reclaim +1.00 1 0 0
Stolen Chance -1.00 0 1 0
Innervate Agility -1.00 0 1 0

JSON: /api/events/41499/archetypes/Wind Seiryuu