Fire AetherwingTier 1
at PTM Store Championship
decks
3
(13.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
12
5-5-2
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
62.0%
avg ELO +5.1 per match
expected value
50.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
54.4%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1178
· median 1219
· range 1088–1227
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
1068
Q1 1173
Q3 1328
1433
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
33% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 13.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 55.1% | +4.9 |
| Fire Suited | 8.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.1% | +19.4 |
| Water Fractal | 8.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 60.4% | +10.0 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 8.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.7% | -3.6 |
| Crux Lorraine | 4.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.7% | +13.9 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 4.3% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.0% | +1.6 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.3% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.8% | +2.9 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 4.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.6% | +16.9 |
| Fire Umbra Alice | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 4.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.9% | -12.9 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Mage | 4.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.9% | -6.6 |
Decklists · 3 from this event
The 3 public Fire Aetherwing decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
