Fire SuitedTier 2
at PTM Store Championship
decks
2
(8.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
9
2-6-1
overall winrate
27.8%
ELO-adjusted winrate
37.5%
avg ELO -5.8 per match
expected value
44.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
45.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1271
· median 1271
· range 1112–1430
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1068
Q1 1173
Q3 1328
1433
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aetherwing | 13.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.9% | -19.4 |
| Fire Aggro | 13.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.1% | -14.3 |
| Water Fractal | 8.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 64.7% | +23.6 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 8.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.8% | -5.1 |
| Crux Lorraine | 4.3% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.8% | -5.2 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 4.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.9% | -16.2 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.9% | -16.1 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Alice | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 4.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.7% | -11.7 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Mage | 4.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.7% | +12.3 |
