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Fire AggroTier 1
at Wolfspider Games & Entertainment Store Championship PTM
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Arcane | 7.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.4% | +15.1 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 7.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.5% | -18.4 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 7.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.9% | +12.6 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 7.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.8% | -17.9 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 7.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.7% | +20.2 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 7.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.7% | -1.2 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 7.7% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 41.2% | -8.5 |
| Wind Umbra Ciel | 7.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.9% | +7.8 |
Decklists · 3 from this event
The 3 public Fire Aggro decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 16 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 16 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orb of Sealing | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Expose Darkness | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Veteran Blazebearer | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ignis Deus | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Stolen Chance | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Conflagrative Trounce | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Enfeebling Orb | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cinder Geyser | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Manxome Armoire | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Deflecting Edge | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Peppered Chef | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Bulwark Sword | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Inverted Pyroslash | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fiery Interference | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |