← Wolfspider Games & Entertainment Store Championship PTM
Water Umbra GuardianTier 1
at Wolfspider Games & Entertainment Store Championship PTM
decks
1
(7.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
3
1-2-0
overall winrate
33.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
47.9%
avg ELO -1.5 per match
expected value
52.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
53.9%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1180
· median 1180
· range 1180–1180
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1128
Q1 1188
Q3 1301
1355
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 23.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.2% | +17.9 |
| Fire Arcane | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 7.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.1% | -7.9 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 7.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.9% | -14.6 |
| Water Aetherwing | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ciel | 7.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Umbra Guardian decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
