← Store Championship PTM season - Kamenn Enterprise
Water FractalTier 1
at Store Championship PTM season - Kamenn Enterprise
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Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aetherwing | 11.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 11.1% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.4% | -1.2 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 11.1% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 74.1% | +18.0 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 11.1% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.0% | -1.7 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.2% | +3.5 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.8% | -19.5 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 5.6% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 31.0% | -18.2 |
| Fire Suzaku | 5.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.3% | +5.2 |
| Water Aetherwing | 5.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.4% | -12.1 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 5.6% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 53.6% | +3.5 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 5.6% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.5% | +4.0 |
Decklists · 3 from this event
The 3 public Water Fractal decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 18 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 18 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orb of Sealing | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Frozen Dismissal | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Snow Fairy | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Enfeebling Orb | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Jianyu, Fate's Premonition | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Acquiescing Rejection | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Captivating Opulence | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fluffy Shopkeep | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Overlapping Visages | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Throne-Keeper Bullfrog | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Prismspire Scepter | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cerulean Decree | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Intrusion | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Wand of Frost | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |