← Irresistible Force Grand Archive - Store Championship
Fire Crux MageTier 1
at Irresistible Force Grand Archive - Store Championship
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Seiryuu | 16.7% | 5 | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 44.4% | 52.7% | +1.6 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 16.7% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 62.9% | +12.4 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 5.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.1% | -1.8 |
| Fire Exia | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 5.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.4% | +11.9 |
| Horse and Taxes | 5.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.1% | +14.5 |
| Water Aetherwing | 5.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.2% | -15.6 |
| Water Fractal | 5.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.4% | -15.4 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 5.6% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.5% | +0.7 |
| Wind Ciel | 5.6% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 64.4% | +13.9 |
Decklists · 4 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 41 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 41 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stalwart Shieldmate | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Gentle Respite | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Suffocating Ash | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Fiery Interference | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crumbling Reign | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Fire | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Stolen Chance | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Incarnate Majesty | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Fluffy Shopkeep | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Prismatic Edge | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Fragmented Spirit of Fire | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Expose Darkness | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Coronation Ceremony | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sword of Seeking | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Morgan, Soul Guide | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Regal Inquisition | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Topsy Decree | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nimue, Cursed Touch | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Three of Hearts | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Unmake Duality | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ascension | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Portentous Tanggu | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Library Witch | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Undying Dreams | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reckoning's Wake | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Devastating Blow | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flame-Rune Swordsman | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flame Sweep | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Varuckan Acolyte | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Protect Her At All Costs | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flared Iridescence | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |