← Irresistible Force Grand Archive - Store Championship
Water AetherwingTier 1
at Irresistible Force Grand Archive - Store Championship
decks
1
(5.6% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
5
4-1-0
overall winrate
80.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
66.8%
avg ELO +9.7 per match
expected value
55.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
55.9%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1334
· median 1334
· range 1334–1334
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1075
Q1 1177
Q3 1330
1617
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 22.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.8% | +15.6 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 16.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.8% | -5.1 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 16.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.6% | +13.8 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 5.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.4% | +11.8 |
| Fire Exia | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 5.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.6% | +12.2 |
| Horse and Taxes | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Ciel | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Aetherwing decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
